Race 3B

central-series-3

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Dan Nickerson 16.6% 12.6% 16.8% 14.6% 13.8% 10.5% 7.4% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Bradley Brown 6.4% 7.0% 10.5% 9.9% 11.7% 10.0% 13.4% 13.2% 8.3% 6.1% 3.0% 0.5%
Colin MURPHY 17.2% 15.2% 15.9% 13.5% 12.6% 11.1% 7.5% 4.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1%
Conor Fowler 5.6% 8.2% 7.6% 10.6% 10.1% 12.6% 12.6% 11.2% 11.0% 6.3% 3.4% 0.8%
Duncan Swain 18.7% 21.4% 16.4% 13.3% 11.4% 8.0% 4.5% 4.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Alex Davis 2.3% 3.0% 2.7% 4.1% 4.8% 6.7% 7.7% 9.7% 15.8% 16.0% 17.4% 9.8%
Michael Lukas 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.2% 3.8% 5.5% 7.3% 9.9% 13.2% 16.3% 16.3% 16.5%
Kyle Carney 17.5% 16.2% 13.3% 13.9% 11.0% 10.4% 8.1% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
William Thalheimer 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 3.1% 3.3% 5.7% 8.3% 11.5% 15.6% 14.9% 17.0% 15.2%
Scott Goodrich 7.9% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 11.9% 13.0% 12.3% 11.2% 8.1% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7%
Matthew Vernacchia 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.8% 7.1% 8.9% 14.6% 20.2% 34.2%
Benjamin Mende 1.7% 2.5% 1.6% 2.7% 2.6% 3.6% 7.1% 8.2% 11.6% 16.7% 19.7% 22.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.