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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+6.90vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+3.91vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.04+6.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+3.67vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.20+2.95vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.71+5.14vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78+1.74vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.81+3.87vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.87+4.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.16vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.14+1.95vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-4.68vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.61-6.01vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.08vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.82-4.67vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.32-7.39vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.62-5.69vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.55-7.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.4%1st Place
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5.91Harvard University3.0511.2%1st Place
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9.42Tulane University2.045.5%1st Place
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7.67Roger Williams University2.408.2%1st Place
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7.95Boston College2.207.8%1st Place
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11.14Northeastern University1.713.2%1st Place
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8.74University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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11.87Old Dominion University1.813.0%1st Place
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13.35University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy2.605.9%1st Place
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12.95University of Wisconsin1.142.4%1st Place
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7.32Georgetown University2.758.1%1st Place
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6.99Stanford University2.619.0%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.8%1st Place
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10.33George Washington University1.824.5%1st Place
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8.61University of Miami2.325.1%1st Place
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11.31Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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10.79Jacksonville University1.554.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 22.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 20.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
| Matthew King | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.