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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+7.88vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+9.43vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+4.45vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.02vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.61+1.64vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+3.92vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+4.21vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40-0.20vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.20-1.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.34vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-3.10vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-3.52vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.71-1.69vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.81-2.12vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.99vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.14-3.08vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.87-3.76vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.04-8.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.88University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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11.43Jacksonville University1.702.8%1st Place
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7.45Georgetown University2.758.6%1st Place
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6.02Harvard University3.0512.7%1st Place
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6.64Stanford University2.619.2%1st Place
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9.92George Washington University1.824.4%1st Place
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11.21Fordham University1.623.7%1st Place
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7.8Roger Williams University2.408.0%1st Place
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7.93Boston College2.207.3%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Naval Academy2.607.6%1st Place
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7.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.0%1st Place
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8.48University of Miami2.326.2%1st Place
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11.31Northeastern University1.713.2%1st Place
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11.88Old Dominion University1.812.2%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.4%1st Place
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12.92University of Wisconsin1.142.1%1st Place
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13.24University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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9.33Tulane University2.044.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Will Priebe | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 23.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.