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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.81+11.18vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+5.33vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.40+4.76vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.04vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.80vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.73vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71+4.23vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32+0.46vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.20-1.16vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-2.19vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87+2.21vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.04-2.73vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.61-6.43vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.82-3.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-4.17vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.70-4.75vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.62-5.79vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.14-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.18Old Dominion University1.812.5%1st Place
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7.33Georgetown University2.758.0%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University2.408.2%1st Place
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6.04Harvard University3.0512.8%1st Place
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8.8University of Rhode Island2.786.2%1st Place
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7.73U. S. Naval Academy2.606.9%1st Place
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11.23Northeastern University1.712.5%1st Place
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8.46University of Miami2.326.3%1st Place
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7.84Boston College2.207.5%1st Place
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7.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.5%1st Place
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13.21University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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9.27Tulane University2.044.8%1st Place
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6.57Stanford University2.6110.0%1st Place
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10.46George Washington University1.824.0%1st Place
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10.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.5%1st Place
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11.25Jacksonville University1.702.6%1st Place
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11.21Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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13.03University of Wisconsin1.141.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noyl Odom | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 22.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 19.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.