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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.05+4.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+5.48vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+4.96vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+3.87vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.69vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.62+5.44vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.61-0.52vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32+0.42vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.04+0.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.15vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-3.16vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.71-0.99vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-0.96vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.82-3.92vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.70-3.94vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-5.24vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.14-4.16vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.72-4.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88Harvard University3.0511.9%1st Place
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7.48Georgetown University2.758.1%1st Place
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7.96Boston College2.206.6%1st Place
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7.87Roger Williams University2.406.9%1st Place
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8.69University of Rhode Island2.785.1%1st Place
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11.44Fordham University1.623.0%1st Place
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6.48Stanford University2.6110.8%1st Place
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8.42University of Miami2.327.0%1st Place
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9.44Tulane University2.044.9%1st Place
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7.85U. S. Naval Academy2.607.4%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.1%1st Place
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11.01Northeastern University1.713.5%1st Place
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12.04Old Dominion University1.812.5%1st Place
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10.08George Washington University1.824.2%1st Place
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11.06Jacksonville University1.703.5%1st Place
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10.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.9%1st Place
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12.84University of Wisconsin1.142.2%1st Place
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13.87University of Vermont0.721.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 17.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 28.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.