Race 4A

wet-your-willie

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
David Oliver 23.6% 21.0% 18.1% 13.8% 11.0% 6.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Travis Cottle 16.7% 16.7% 15.5% 13.5% 12.0% 9.1% 8.2% 5.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Aras Karaitis 15.8% 14.7% 16.5% 14.3% 13.5% 10.0% 8.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Katie Barbour 14.7% 13.6% 13.6% 16.5% 13.5% 11.4% 7.1% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Timothy McElreath 4.4% 3.9% 5.2% 6.5% 7.9% 9.5% 9.7% 13.2% 15.7% 14.1% 9.9%
Ryan Davidson 8.4% 9.7% 9.3% 9.6% 13.0% 12.8% 12.3% 10.5% 7.3% 5.8% 1.3%
Nicholas Lewis 2.7% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 4.1% 7.3% 8.8% 10.9% 15.2% 19.3% 22.5%
William Putnam Jr. 3.0% 2.7% 3.1% 5.2% 4.4% 9.0% 9.5% 13.2% 14.9% 18.1% 16.9%
George Halsted 5.5% 7.8% 7.3% 9.1% 8.9% 12.5% 13.0% 12.1% 12.4% 7.3% 4.1%
Nick Van Antwerp 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 3.6% 3.8% 6.6% 9.6% 11.2% 20.3% 36.9%
Katy Aiello 3.6% 5.0% 6.2% 6.0% 8.1% 8.3% 12.3% 13.6% 16.2% 13.0% 7.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.