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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.80vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+8.23vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+3.08vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.81+7.97vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.70vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.04+2.07vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40-0.27vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.61-2.29vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-2.11vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.20-2.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.84vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.14-0.07vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.55-3.17vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.71-3.74vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.32-7.54vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.87-3.66vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.62-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8U. S. Naval Academy2.608.1%1st Place
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10.23George Washington University1.823.9%1st Place
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6.08Harvard University3.0511.3%1st Place
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11.97Old Dominion University1.811.8%1st Place
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7.58Georgetown University2.758.3%1st Place
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8.7University of Rhode Island2.785.5%1st Place
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9.07Tulane University2.046.1%1st Place
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7.73Roger Williams University2.406.8%1st Place
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6.71Stanford University2.619.3%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.6%1st Place
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8.04Boston College2.207.0%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.8%1st Place
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12.93University of Wisconsin1.141.8%1st Place
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10.83Jacksonville University1.553.5%1st Place
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11.26Northeastern University1.713.4%1st Place
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8.46University of Miami2.326.3%1st Place
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13.34University of Vermont0.872.3%1st Place
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11.23Fordham University1.623.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 20.7% |
| Matthew King | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% |
| Will Priebe | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 22.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.