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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+10.03vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+3.99vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.61+3.82vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+4.78vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.71+6.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+3.97vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+1.85vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20-0.09vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.14+4.08vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.40-2.11vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.75-3.57vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-0.03vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-3.64vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.55-3.19vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.87-1.67vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.60-8.30vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-9.11vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-7.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.03Fordham University1.623.2%1st Place
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5.99Harvard University3.0512.2%1st Place
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6.82Stanford University2.618.7%1st Place
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8.78University of Rhode Island2.785.5%1st Place
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11.29Northeastern University1.713.4%1st Place
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9.97George Washington University1.824.8%1st Place
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8.85University of Miami2.325.8%1st Place
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7.91Boston College2.206.9%1st Place
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13.08University of Wisconsin1.142.1%1st Place
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7.89Roger Williams University2.407.7%1st Place
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7.43Georgetown University2.757.9%1st Place
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11.97Old Dominion University1.813.3%1st Place
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9.36Tulane University2.045.5%1st Place
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10.81Jacksonville University1.553.5%1st Place
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13.33University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.0%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Will Priebe | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 21.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Matthew King | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 24.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.