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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+6.71vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+4.52vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.80vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.40+3.79vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.20+2.87vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75+1.31vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+5.15vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32+0.52vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.05-2.85vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.87+3.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.14+1.09vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-3.55vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.08vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.71-3.77vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.62-4.67vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.55-6.25vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.82-7.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.8%1st Place
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6.52Stanford University2.6110.1%1st Place
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8.8University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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7.79Roger Williams University2.408.3%1st Place
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7.87Boston College2.207.2%1st Place
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7.31Georgetown University2.757.8%1st Place
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12.15Old Dominion University1.813.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Miami2.326.7%1st Place
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6.15Harvard University3.0511.2%1st Place
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13.49University of Vermont0.871.7%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Naval Academy2.607.2%1st Place
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13.09University of Wisconsin1.141.8%1st Place
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9.45Tulane University2.044.4%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.2%1st Place
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11.23Northeastern University1.713.0%1st Place
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11.33Fordham University1.623.7%1st Place
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10.75Jacksonville University1.553.4%1st Place
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10.23George Washington University1.824.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 24.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 20.0% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% |
| Will Priebe | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% |
| Matthew King | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.