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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+8.94vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+4.63vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.80vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.20+4.26vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+2.39vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+0.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.68vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.14+3.99vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.71+1.47vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.32-2.62vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.62-0.64vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-3.58vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-0.78vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.81-3.03vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.40-8.26vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-6.01vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.55-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.94George Washington University1.824.2%1st Place
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6.63Stanford University2.6110.8%1st Place
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8.8University of Rhode Island2.785.8%1st Place
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8.26Boston College2.206.1%1st Place
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7.39Georgetown University2.758.6%1st Place
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6.05Harvard University3.0513.2%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Naval Academy2.606.8%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.3%1st Place
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12.99University of Wisconsin1.141.9%1st Place
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11.47Northeastern University1.712.5%1st Place
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8.38University of Miami2.326.0%1st Place
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11.36Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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9.42Tulane University2.044.8%1st Place
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13.22University of Vermont0.872.2%1st Place
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11.97Old Dominion University1.812.6%1st Place
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7.74Roger Williams University2.407.4%1st Place
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10.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.1%1st Place
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10.78Jacksonville University1.553.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 19.4% |
| Will Priebe | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 23.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Matthew King | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.