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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.67+3.47vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.83+5.10vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.71vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+0.77vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.22vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.42vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+4.00vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College4.15-2.25vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-1.49vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.23vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.81+3.19vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.27-2.75vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99+0.43vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-1.12vs Predicted
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15Villanova University1.80-0.85vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-5.75vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia3.14-7.37vs Predicted
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18Hampton University2.11-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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4.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.2%1st Place
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6.22Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.42University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.0Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.75SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.51Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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11.23Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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14.19Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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9.25Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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13.43Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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12.88William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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14.15Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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9.63University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
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13.04Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Aras | 15.9% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 15.4% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Shawn Murray | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 25.4% |
| Philip Alley | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| John Croll | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 22.9% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.