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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.67+3.41vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.00vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.72vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+0.75vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.23vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.83+0.94vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.90vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.14+1.26vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.07vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.81+4.12vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.27-1.95vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.11+1.36vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-3.81vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-1.28vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.73-4.15vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.65-8.41vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.24-1.47vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.99-4.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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6.0SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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4.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.2%1st Place
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6.23Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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10.9Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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14.12Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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9.05Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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13.36Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.19University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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12.72William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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10.85Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.59Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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15.53Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.3Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Aras | 15.3% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 15.4% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Edward Stokes | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| Philip Alley | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 11.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 8.8% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 17.3% | 41.9% |
| John Croll | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.