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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.98vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+2.90vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.83+4.02vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.67+0.22vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+1.52vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.35vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+5.97vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.79vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73+1.91vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.99+3.63vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.27-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.14-2.35vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.11-0.05vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.65-6.71vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.81-1.05vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-5.83vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-6.03vs Predicted
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18Villanova University1.24-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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4.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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4.22Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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6.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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9.35University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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12.97William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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6.21Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.91Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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13.63Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.99Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
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12.95Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.29Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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13.95Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.97Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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15.31Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 12.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Evan Aras | 18.8% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 10.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| John Croll | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Edward Stokes | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 9.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 39.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.