← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+3.60vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College4.15+3.67vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.55vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University4.01+2.33vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.83+1.68vs Predicted
-
6Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.88vs Predicted
-
7University of Virginia3.14+2.29vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University2.73+2.47vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University4.67-4.61vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University3.27-1.29vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-0.96vs Predicted
-
12Columbia University2.55-0.68vs Predicted
-
13William and Mary2.13-0.25vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University1.81-0.36vs Predicted
-
15Villanova University1.24-0.15vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania3.16-6.70vs Predicted
-
17Washington College3.65-9.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.2%1st Place
-
5.67SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
-
6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
6.33Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
6.68U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
-
10.88Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
-
9.29University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
-
10.47Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
-
4.39Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
-
8.71Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
-
10.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
11.32Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
-
12.75William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
13.64Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
-
14.85Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
-
9.3University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
7.54Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 16.1% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Ramos | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Evan Aras | 15.8% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 4.8% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 18.0% | 13.7% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 22.0% | 21.7% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 47.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.