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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.65vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.65+5.29vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.67+1.18vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+6.56vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.27+3.57vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+4.02vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-2.31vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.90vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.36vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.83-3.36vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.14-1.79vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.98vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99-0.03vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.81-0.46vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-4.51vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.24-1.17vs Predicted
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17William and Mary2.13-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.29Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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10.56Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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4.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.1Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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9.21University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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12.97Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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13.54Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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10.49Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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14.83Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.57William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Evan Aras | 19.6% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| Philip Alley | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Edward Stokes | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| John Croll | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 18.5% | 14.4% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 41.4% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.