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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.67+3.11vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+4.06vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.83+3.76vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.52vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-0.42vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.27+2.85vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.30vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.14+0.96vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-1.48vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.81+3.42vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.40vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.98vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.73-2.33vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-1.34vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.99-2.16vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.24-1.15vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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6.06Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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4.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.2%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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5.7SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Virginia3.140.1%1st Place
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7.52Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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13.42Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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10.6Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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10.67Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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12.66William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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12.84Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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14.85Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Aras | 18.8% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 16.0% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Shawn Murray | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 5.2% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 2.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 13.0% |
| John Croll | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 17.3% | 43.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.