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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+4.70vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.83+4.79vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.75vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+7.39vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.67-0.82vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.27+3.06vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-0.74vs Predicted
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8William and Mary2.13+4.56vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.30vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-0.03vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.65-3.40vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.14-2.64vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-2.09vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.81-0.19vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.69vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.80-2.20vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.73-6.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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4.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.39Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.06Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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6.26Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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12.56William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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6.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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7.6Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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9.36University of Virginia3.140.0%1st Place
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10.91Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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13.81Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.8Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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10.83Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.8% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 6.7% |
| Evan Aras | 18.7% | 17.5% | 15.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Edward Stokes | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 18.2% | 29.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 18.2% | 28.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.