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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.07+6.95vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.07vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+0.23vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+4.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.87vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.13+5.03vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.70-1.23vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-2.78vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.680.00vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-1.80vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-3.80vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04-0.45vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-1.75vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-0.13vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.60+0.38vs Predicted
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16William and Mary1.37-2.49vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.59-4.16vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.55-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.95Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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5.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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3.23Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.87U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.03Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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5.77Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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5.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.0University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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11.55Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.25Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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13.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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15.38Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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13.51William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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12.84Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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15.36Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.4% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 9.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 24.0% | 22.0% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Michael Grove | 9.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| Christian Geary | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 16.5% | 13.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 20.0% | 32.9% |
| Bill Parker | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 9.9% |
| Domenic Re | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 6.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 32.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.