← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+4.20vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.38vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University4.74+0.23vs Predicted
-
4Columbia University2.13+6.82vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.85vs Predicted
-
6William and Mary1.37+7.35vs Predicted
-
7Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+4.42vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University3.70-2.28vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia3.01-1.03vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University2.77-0.98vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University2.04+0.37vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania2.68-2.59vs Predicted
-
13Washington College3.07-5.31vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College3.28-7.12vs Predicted
-
15Villanova University1.59-2.28vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.83vs Predicted
-
17Hampton University0.60-1.54vs Predicted
-
18Princeton University0.55-2.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
-
5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
3.23Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
10.82Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
5.85U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
13.35William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
-
11.42Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
-
5.72Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
-
7.97University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
9.02Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
11.37Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
9.41University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
7.69Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
6.88SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
-
12.72Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
-
14.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
-
15.46Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
-
15.33Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 24.9% | 22.0% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Michael Grove | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Parker | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
| Christian Geary | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Michael Russom | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 5.9% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 15.9% | 15.3% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 22.2% | 32.1% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 21.5% | 30.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.