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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.84vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+1.09vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.07+4.70vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.70+1.81vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+6.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.04vs Predicted
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7William and Mary1.29+6.23vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.86vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.28-1.83vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.81vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-2.91vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04-0.90vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55+1.97vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.13-3.04vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.77-6.29vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.59-3.51vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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3.09Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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7.7Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.81Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.01Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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13.23William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.09University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.1Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.97Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.96Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.71Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.49Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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13.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 13.5% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 28.2% | 18.9% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
| Michael Grove | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 14.1% |
| Michael Russom | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Randall Hartranft | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 18.6% | 45.7% |
| David Coplon | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 2.4% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Domenic Re | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 21.7% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.