← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.84vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.74+1.08vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.70+2.77vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College3.28+3.07vs Predicted
-
5Washington College3.07+2.67vs Predicted
-
6Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+5.36vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy3.67-1.17vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-2.80vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University2.04+2.17vs Predicted
-
10University of Virginia3.01-2.20vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.95vs Predicted
-
12William and Mary1.29+1.32vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University2.13-2.18vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University2.77-5.17vs Predicted
-
15Villanova University1.59-2.58vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-2.22vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University0.55-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
-
3.08Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
-
5.77Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
-
7.07SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
-
7.67Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
11.36Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
-
5.83U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
5.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
11.17Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
7.8University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
-
9.05University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
13.32William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
-
10.82Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
-
8.83Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
12.42Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
-
13.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
-
15.0Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 27.8% | 21.0% | 17.0% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Randall Hartranft | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Michael Grove | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Michael Russom | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Domenic Re | 0.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 15.9% | 7.9% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.