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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.70+4.64vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.13+8.72vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.07+4.72vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74-0.79vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.17vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.01+2.07vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04+4.05vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-3.09vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-3.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.28-3.02vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.95vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+1.59vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.29+0.39vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.73vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.77-6.32vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.55-0.95vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.59-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.72Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.72Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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3.21Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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5.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.05Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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4.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.98SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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13.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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13.39William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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11.27Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.05Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.53Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Stagg | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 24.5% | 22.8% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 13.4% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| Christian Geary | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 19.5% | 43.7% |
| Domenic Re | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.