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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.84vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+1.09vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.07+4.70vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.70+1.81vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.13+5.67vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-0.67vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+4.20vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.28-1.03vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-3.02vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77-1.33vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-2.96vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.02vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.29+0.37vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.04-2.78vs Predicted
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15Villanova University1.59-2.52vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.41vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.55-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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3.09Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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7.7Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.81Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.67Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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5.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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11.2Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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6.97SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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8.98University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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13.37William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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11.22Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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12.48Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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13.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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15.07Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 14.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 27.5% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 3.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 7.6% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 19.5% | 16.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 3.1% |
| Domenic Re | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 9.1% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.