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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.09vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.07+5.64vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.01+4.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.88vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.70+0.59vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.19vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.74-3.86vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+0.55vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.04+2.31vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+3.57vs Predicted
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11William and Mary1.29+2.39vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.59+0.45vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.13-2.09vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.72vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55-0.09vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.28-8.91vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-11.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.64Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.95University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.59Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.19University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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3.14Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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8.55Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.31Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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13.39William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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12.45Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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10.91Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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11.28Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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14.91Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.09SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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5.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 13.2% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Michael Grove | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Chris Barnard | 26.0% | 22.2% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 19.5% | 17.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 21.2% | 17.6% |
| Domenic Re | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 9.3% |
| David Coplon | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% |
| Christian Geary | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 44.6% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 11.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.