Race 9A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brooke Schmelz 7.3% 9.2% 8.5% 10.8% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 10.2% 8.3% 6.6% 5.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4%
Mia Hanes 3.6% 4.3% 5.5% 6.3% 8.3% 8.7% 9.4% 9.8% 10.8% 9.2% 8.1% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 28.2% 20.8% 18.2% 12.3% 8.0% 6.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Carmen Cowles 21.6% 19.5% 18.8% 13.4% 9.2% 8.0% 3.8% 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Eva Ermlich 6.0% 6.2% 7.4% 7.2% 7.6% 9.2% 9.4% 10.2% 9.0% 8.5% 7.5% 6.4% 3.5% 1.6%
Kytalin Hendrickson 4.5% 4.7% 4.9% 6.2% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 8.8% 9.3% 10.8% 8.5% 9.2% 7.1% 3.8%
Lauren Ehnot 3.9% 6.2% 6.2% 7.3% 8.3% 8.2% 12.0% 8.7% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 6.2% 4.5% 2.1%
bella casaretto 6.7% 7.4% 8.0% 9.6% 11.1% 10.2% 9.6% 10.3% 8.1% 7.7% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 0.5%
Cordelia Burn 8.6% 9.6% 9.3% 10.2% 11.7% 10.9% 9.4% 9.1% 7.5% 5.9% 4.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Katherine McGagh 1.9% 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% 3.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7% 6.6% 7.2% 10.9% 12.9% 16.3% 17.7%
Vivian Bonsager 2.6% 3.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.7% 5.0% 6.3% 8.5% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.9% 10.2% 7.0%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 7.1% 9.3% 10.6% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1%
Heidi Hicks 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 7.4% 8.8% 11.4% 13.7% 16.6% 14.8%
Elizabeth Amelotte 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 4.9% 6.2% 8.5% 11.2% 17.2% 34.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.