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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+7.55vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+1.11vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+1.96vs Predicted
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4William and Mary1.29+9.29vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+2.64vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.66+0.02vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.01+0.95vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.13+2.63vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.14vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.70-4.33vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+0.26vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-6.76vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.28-5.80vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.59-1.35vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.04-3.92vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.42vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.55-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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3.11Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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4.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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13.29William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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7.64Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.02U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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7.95University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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10.63Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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9.14University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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5.67Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.26Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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12.65Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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11.08Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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15.03Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Chris Barnard | 27.7% | 21.2% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.5% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Jason Carminati | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| David Coplon | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Michael Russom | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Brady Stagg | 8.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.6% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 10.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 43.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.