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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+2.07vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+6.59vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.84vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.59+8.46vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+2.60vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-0.65vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.13+3.86vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-3.06vs Predicted
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9William and Mary1.29+4.44vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-2.16vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+2.66vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.28-4.97vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.04-1.84vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.68vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55-0.09vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.68-6.95vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.70-11.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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8.59Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.84U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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12.46Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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7.6Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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10.86Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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4.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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13.44William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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7.84University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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13.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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7.03SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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11.16Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.32Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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14.91Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 29.2% | 19.8% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Jason Carminati | 7.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 14.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 15.9% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 21.8% | 20.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% |
| Christian Geary | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 17.5% | 44.5% |
| Michael Russom | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Brady Stagg | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.