Race 11A

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Vanessa Lahrkamp 28.2% 21.2% 17.9% 13.1% 7.2% 5.8% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cordelia Burn 7.5% 9.7% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 9.8% 10.8% 9.0% 7.4% 5.5% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Carmen Cowles 22.5% 18.2% 17.7% 13.6% 10.6% 8.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brooke Schmelz 8.5% 10.2% 9.8% 10.4% 10.2% 9.8% 9.2% 8.1% 8.7% 6.2% 5.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Heidi Hicks 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 4.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 7.3% 8.4% 9.7% 13.8% 15.8% 16.2%
Eva Ermlich 4.8% 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 9.2% 9.3% 10.4% 8.6% 9.4% 9.8% 7.5% 6.2% 3.1% 1.0%
Vivian Bonsager 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 10.0% 11.6% 11.6% 10.0% 6.3%
Kytalin Hendrickson 3.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% 6.7% 7.7% 10.1% 9.4% 9.6% 10.4% 10.2% 7.0% 3.6%
Mia Hanes 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.7% 10.2% 9.3% 9.8% 9.1% 7.8% 5.6% 2.8%
Katherine McGagh 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 6.9% 8.8% 10.0% 11.6% 15.9% 16.6%
bella casaretto 6.7% 7.4% 7.4% 10.5% 9.6% 10.8% 9.9% 10.2% 9.3% 6.6% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.5%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 2.8% 3.8% 4.5% 4.8% 6.1% 7.0% 8.3% 11.1% 11.8% 16.9% 16.3%
Lauren Ehnot 4.2% 5.3% 5.9% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.6% 10.2% 8.9% 9.9% 8.1% 7.9% 4.0% 1.6%
Elizabeth Amelotte 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.0% 6.4% 7.6% 11.1% 17.2% 34.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.