Race 12A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Carmen Cowles 22.8% 18.9% 17.6% 13.5% 10.5% 6.5% 4.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Katherine McGagh 1.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.7% 6.0% 6.2% 8.8% 9.6% 12.6% 15.8% 17.9%
Mia Hanes 4.0% 4.9% 5.5% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 9.5% 8.8% 10.2% 10.9% 9.6% 6.9% 5.8% 1.9%
bella casaretto 7.1% 8.6% 7.7% 9.2% 9.9% 10.1% 10.2% 9.4% 8.8% 7.5% 5.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Cordelia Burn 7.9% 9.7% 9.3% 10.1% 11.8% 10.5% 10.3% 8.5% 7.4% 5.4% 5.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Brooke Schmelz 8.3% 9.3% 10.2% 9.6% 10.6% 12.2% 9.7% 8.6% 7.1% 5.8% 4.0% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1%
Maisie MacGillivray 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.7% 5.1% 6.1% 6.7% 9.2% 10.8% 13.0% 15.9% 15.5%
Elizabeth Amelotte 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 4.9% 7.8% 11.7% 17.2% 36.1%
Kytalin Hendrickson 4.6% 4.0% 5.1% 6.7% 5.9% 6.9% 8.1% 8.9% 10.1% 9.1% 8.5% 10.0% 8.5% 3.7%
Lauren Ehnot 4.8% 5.6% 6.7% 7.2% 8.2% 8.8% 9.6% 9.3% 9.5% 8.7% 9.9% 6.2% 3.9% 1.7%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 25.8% 22.5% 17.9% 12.9% 8.1% 6.3% 2.9% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Eva Ermlich 5.9% 5.6% 6.9% 7.8% 7.6% 9.2% 10.6% 11.0% 10.1% 8.6% 7.2% 5.4% 3.2% 0.9%
Vivian Bonsager 2.6% 3.2% 2.9% 4.0% 6.0% 5.8% 7.3% 8.2% 9.0% 12.0% 11.3% 11.7% 9.6% 6.3%
Heidi Hicks 2.1% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 4.2% 4.6% 4.8% 6.5% 7.5% 8.1% 10.3% 13.2% 16.1% 14.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.