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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.88+7.95vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.82+7.29vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.18+4.92vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.71+5.97vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.51+1.48vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.98+2.97vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.40+4.14vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.20-0.31vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.89vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.74-0.41vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.23-3.11vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.29-4.45vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.75-3.11vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.80-4.28vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50-4.27vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.51-5.26vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.86-7.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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9.29Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.92Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.97Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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6.48Boston College3.510.1%1st Place
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8.97Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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11.14Old Dominion University2.400.0%1st Place
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7.69College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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7.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.59Boston University2.740.0%1st Place
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7.89Stanford University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.55Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.89Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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9.72University of South Florida2.800.0%1st Place
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10.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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10.74Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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9.35University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa Lihan | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Sky Adams | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Stephanie Hudson | 11.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Mariel Marchand | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Rachel Austin | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 12.3% |
| Grace Lucas | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Hanna Vincent | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Elizabeth Glivinski | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Molly McKinney | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Emily Billing | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Liz Dubovik | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| Rachael Silverstein | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 14.2% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.4% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.