Race 1A

maisa-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
George Prieto 12.5% 14.1% 13.4% 13.6% 12.7% 10.9% 7.9% 7.0% 5.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nancy Hagood 17.4% 17.0% 15.2% 13.6% 12.4% 10.6% 7.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evan Hoffmann 15.8% 13.9% 15.0% 12.9% 12.0% 11.0% 9.4% 5.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 13.0% 14.4% 12.8% 13.0% 12.7% 11.0% 10.2% 7.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Margaret Meehan 2.1% 2.1% 3.0% 3.7% 3.4% 7.0% 7.3% 9.9% 12.6% 14.4% 15.4% 11.4% 4.9% 2.8% 0.0%
Mia Cooper 4.9% 4.6% 6.7% 7.5% 8.8% 9.8% 12.0% 13.9% 13.3% 8.9% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Nicholas Clemence 20.2% 17.3% 14.8% 14.8% 11.7% 9.7% 5.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 1.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 3.9% 3.8% 6.1% 8.3% 10.8% 15.2% 12.7% 14.5% 9.9% 5.3% 0.0%
Hillary Paulsen 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 4.5% 5.4% 5.6% 9.2% 14.1% 16.2% 14.9% 10.1% 5.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Samuel Bedinger 6.4% 7.2% 9.0% 9.8% 10.9% 13.1% 14.3% 11.9% 8.2% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Liz Wolfe 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.6% 3.2% 4.7% 6.9% 7.3% 13.7% 17.8% 20.1% 19.8% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 1.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 3.9% 3.8% 6.1% 8.3% 10.8% 15.2% 12.7% 14.5% 9.9% 5.3% 0.0%
Anthony Pappenfus 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 6.7% 9.3% 14.0% 18.2% 18.0% 21.0% 0.0%
Stephen Ciccariello 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 4.0% 6.6% 9.9% 13.3% 16.6% 20.2% 19.0% 0.0%
Bryan Whittington 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.8% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 8.3% 10.4% 12.3% 22.7% 30.7% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.