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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.53vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.28+1.81vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.17+1.15vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-0.16vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.30+3.85vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.51vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.46-2.35vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.60-1.04vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.11-3.24vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-1.40vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.24-0.77vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.10-1.11vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.99-4.40vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-3.86vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.22-4.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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3.81Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
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4.15Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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3.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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8.85Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.49SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.65Washington College2.460.1%1st Place
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7.96Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.76Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.6University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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11.23William and Mary0.240.0%1st Place
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11.89University of Delaware-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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11.14Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.11Drexel University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Prieto | 11.9% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 18.2% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 16.2% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 17.0% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 13.8% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 8.2% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Liz Wolfe | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Whittington | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 20.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 19.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Ciccariello | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 17.4% | 21.7% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.