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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.81vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.17+2.03vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.36vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.58vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.60+3.14vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.28-1.95vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.30+1.52vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.99+0.44vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.46-4.08vs Predicted
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11William and Mary0.24+0.23vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.10-0.12vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester0.99-3.56vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.11-7.23vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-3.85vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.22-4.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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4.03Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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4.36SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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4.58U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.14Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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4.05Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
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8.52Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.44University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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5.92Washington College2.460.1%1st Place
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11.23William and Mary0.240.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Delaware-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.44University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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6.77Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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11.15Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.12Drexel University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 18.0% | 18.1% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 15.9% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 14.6% | 14.7% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 12.1% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 17.0% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liz Wolfe | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 21.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Whittington | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 19.7% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 18.2% | 19.9% | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Ciccariello | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 21.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.