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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.17+3.11vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.28vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+0.75vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.28+0.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.30vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.11+0.80vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.30+1.51vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.60-0.01vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.22+2.26vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.21+1.30vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-1.43vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.46-7.12vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.10-2.23vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.99-5.43vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.24-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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4.28SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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3.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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4.01Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
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4.7U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.8Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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8.51Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.99Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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11.26Drexel University0.220.0%1st Place
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11.3Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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5.88Washington College2.460.1%1st Place
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11.77University of Delaware-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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11.07William and Mary0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Hoffmann | 16.4% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 19.8% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 16.2% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 9.8% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Ciccariello | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 19.5% | 20.6% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 14.7% | 21.1% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Whittington | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 19.4% | 32.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Liz Wolfe | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 17.5% | 20.1% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.