Race 15A

maisa-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
George Prieto 14.0% 12.5% 15.4% 11.6% 14.0% 11.5% 8.3% 6.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Hillary Paulsen 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 8.9% 12.7% 16.0% 15.7% 10.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.0%
Mia Cooper 5.5% 5.6% 7.1% 7.7% 9.7% 10.0% 13.9% 12.9% 12.4% 8.9% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Tyler Steel 14.5% 14.2% 14.7% 14.3% 12.5% 9.7% 8.9% 6.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 3.6% 5.7% 5.9% 10.4% 12.3% 15.7% 17.0% 14.2% 5.4% 0.0%
Evan Hoffmann 16.6% 17.8% 14.2% 15.3% 11.2% 9.0% 6.4% 4.9% 3.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Margaret Meehan 3.0% 2.4% 3.8% 5.4% 3.4% 6.6% 9.0% 10.8% 13.0% 16.5% 15.0% 7.9% 3.2% 0.0%
Nicholas Clemence 19.0% 19.9% 15.4% 13.3% 13.7% 9.4% 4.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Bedinger 8.6% 7.3% 9.4% 10.2% 10.3% 12.5% 13.4% 12.4% 7.2% 5.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Amanda Taselaar 10.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.1% 10.8% 12.2% 10.5% 8.8% 7.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Stephen Ciccariello 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 5.6% 4.9% 8.2% 11.4% 18.0% 22.2% 23.2% 0.0%
Liz Wolfe 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 5.0% 6.6% 10.1% 16.2% 26.3% 25.1% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 3.6% 5.7% 5.9% 10.4% 12.3% 15.7% 17.0% 14.2% 5.4% 0.0%
Bryan Whittington 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 2.4% 1.8% 2.5% 5.3% 7.2% 14.4% 22.6% 40.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.