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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.68+3.76vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+1.83vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.33+2.70vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20-0.31vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.47-0.60vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74-0.96vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.92-2.24vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.69+0.01vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.02-1.71vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.88-2.46vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.06-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.69-3.99vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.32-3.10vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-1.05-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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3.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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5.7Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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3.69Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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5.06SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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5.4Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.04Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.76Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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9.29Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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9.54Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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9.08Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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10.01University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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11.9William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.94University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Timmins | 12.6% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 19.4% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 18.7% | 20.0% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 9.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 20.4% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 17.0% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 20.4% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 32.6% | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 58.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.