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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.63+3.90vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.47+3.16vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.33+2.66vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+0.04vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.20-1.35vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.88+3.62vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.69+1.76vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.68-4.22vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.69-0.24vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.92-4.14vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.06-2.83vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.02-3.78vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.74-6.67vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.32-3.09vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-1.05-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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5.16Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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5.66Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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4.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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3.65Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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9.62Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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9.76University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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9.76University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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6.86Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
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9.17Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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9.22Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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7.33Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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11.91William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.95University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Paxton | 11.4% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 7.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 16.8% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 19.1% | 19.9% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 14.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 32.1% | 27.1% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 60.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.