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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.68+3.79vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.20+1.49vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+0.94vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.47+1.35vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.33+0.82vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.98vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.69+2.77vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.88+1.45vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.02-0.76vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.74-3.65vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.06-2.80vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.32-1.00vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.69-4.23vs Predicted
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15University of Delaware-1.05-2.10vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.92-9.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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3.49Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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3.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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5.35Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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5.02SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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9.77University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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9.45Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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9.24Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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7.35Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.2Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.0William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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6.68Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Timmins | 12.1% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 22.1% | 18.5% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 18.4% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 19.8% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 15.8% | 33.0% | 26.8% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 19.8% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 18.8% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.