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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.20+2.60vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+1.85vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.33+2.72vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.68+0.86vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.92+1.87vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.47-0.59vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.24vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.88+0.42vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.69+0.04vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.74-3.65vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.02-2.73vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-1.05+0.03vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.32-2.07vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.06-6.08vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester0.69-5.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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3.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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5.72Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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4.86U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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6.87Washington College1.920.0%1st Place
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5.41Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.76SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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9.42Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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10.04University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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7.35Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.27Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.03University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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11.93William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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8.92Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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10.04University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel LOCHNER | 21.4% | 19.3% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 18.6% | 16.6% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 10.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 19.8% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 7.1% | 19.9% | 61.6% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 32.8% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 19.8% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.