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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.68+3.78vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.33+3.54vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.20+0.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.00vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.02+4.25vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.92+0.96vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.47-1.85vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.69+1.85vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-4.99vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.69-1.15vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.88-2.38vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.74-5.66vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.32-1.97vs Predicted
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15University of Delaware-1.05-2.11vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.06-7.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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5.54Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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3.6Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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4.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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9.25Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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6.96Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
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5.15Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.85University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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5.01SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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9.85University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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9.62Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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7.34Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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12.03William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.89University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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8.98Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Timmins | 11.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 21.1% | 18.6% | 15.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 17.1% | 16.8% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 15.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 19.3% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 11.5% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 19.3% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 32.5% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 20.6% | 58.8% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.