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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.92+5.72vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.20+1.50vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+0.96vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.68-0.08vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.69+4.05vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.33-1.51vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.02+1.12vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.32+1.99vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.69-0.95vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.74-4.61vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-7.60vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.88-4.45vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.06-6.04vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-1.05-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
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3.5Old Dominion University3.200.2%1st Place
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3.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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5.01SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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4.92U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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10.05University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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5.49Georgetown University2.330.1%1st Place
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9.12Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.99William and Mary-0.320.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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7.39Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.4Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.55Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
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8.96Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.93University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Needham | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 22.6% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 17.7% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 19.4% | 14.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Efe Brock | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 34.1% | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 19.4% | 14.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin McEwen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 19.9% | 58.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.