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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+1.73vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University0.68+5.69vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+1.34vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.71+0.21vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine0.49+2.42vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.67vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-1.28vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.41+1.11vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.98-4.79vs Predicted
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13University of Texas0.11-2.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.07-3.73vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.04vs Predicted
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16University of Washington-2.55-8.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79California Poly Maritime Academy1.9214.1%1st Place
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3.73University of Hawaii2.4122.1%1st Place
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8.69Northwestern University0.684.2%1st Place
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5.34University of California at Santa Barbara1.6711.8%1st Place
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5.21University of Southern California1.7112.2%1st Place
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9.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.4%1st Place
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9.42University of California at Irvine0.493.5%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Los Angeles0.112.5%1st Place
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8.31California State University Channel Islands0.824.2%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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12.11Arizona State University-0.411.7%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Berkeley0.986.3%1st Place
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10.05University of Texas0.112.7%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Davis0.072.1%1st Place
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13.96University of California at San Diego-1.130.4%1st Place
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7.85University of Washington-2.554.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 14.1% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 22.1% | 18.3% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Henry Boeger | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Linnea Jackson | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 7.8% |
| Sterling Maggard | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| Will Cornell | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 51.7% |
| Maxwell Miller | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.