Race 1A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blake Behrens 21.4% 19.5% 15.0% 14.0% 10.1% 7.5% 5.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Reid Nelson 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 6.9% 7.6% 10.1% 11.7% 14.5% 15.2% 9.3%
Tavia Smith 7.9% 6.8% 8.8% 8.9% 9.4% 10.0% 11.7% 10.8% 9.2% 6.3% 5.5% 3.5% 1.2%
Martins Atilla 16.2% 17.1% 14.0% 14.1% 12.2% 7.8% 7.3% 4.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Wilson Kaznoski 4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 5.3% 7.0% 7.0% 8.2% 10.0% 9.3% 10.4% 12.0% 11.1% 5.2%
Jakub Fuja 5.5% 5.9% 6.3% 6.5% 8.1% 7.8% 10.2% 9.7% 8.7% 10.7% 9.4% 7.7% 3.5%
Alexandra Chigas 7.3% 8.4% 8.5% 8.1% 9.4% 9.3% 10.7% 9.5% 10.4% 8.2% 5.5% 3.8% 0.9%
Caylin Schnoor 3.6% 3.6% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 8.0% 7.3% 9.7% 11.1% 11.9% 11.9% 11.8% 4.5%
Andrew White 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% 7.5% 14.6% 54.2%
Connor Macken 10.7% 9.5% 10.2% 9.4% 10.8% 10.2% 9.1% 8.8% 7.8% 6.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5%
Beck Lorsch 2.3% 2.5% 3.1% 4.7% 3.7% 5.2% 4.9% 6.8% 7.4% 11.2% 13.7% 19.0% 15.7%
Laura Hamilton 12.5% 13.5% 12.3% 12.3% 11.6% 12.2% 6.9% 6.6% 5.8% 3.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Nolan Cooper 4.2% 4.1% 6.3% 5.7% 5.9% 7.4% 8.8% 9.3% 10.0% 10.9% 12.0% 10.6% 4.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.