Race 4A

yale-fall-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Martins Atilla 16.2% 15.2% 14.1% 13.3% 11.1% 9.8% 8.2% 5.6% 3.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Connor Macken 9.6% 10.3% 10.1% 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.5% 5.9% 3.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Tavia Smith 7.8% 8.1% 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3% 10.9% 10.3% 9.2% 8.3% 5.5% 2.9% 0.8%
Alexandra Chigas 7.6% 8.2% 8.6% 8.9% 9.2% 10.2% 9.1% 10.7% 9.1% 7.5% 6.8% 2.6% 1.2%
Reid Nelson 3.1% 3.9% 3.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.1% 6.7% 7.0% 9.0% 10.8% 13.2% 18.6% 9.2%
Laura Hamilton 13.2% 12.6% 12.2% 13.4% 11.2% 10.4% 9.4% 6.5% 5.2% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Blake Behrens 22.7% 18.9% 16.2% 12.0% 10.9% 7.8% 4.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Wilson Kaznoski 3.2% 4.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.0% 10.8% 10.8% 12.1% 10.8% 4.8%
Beck Lorsch 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 5.3% 7.1% 8.3% 10.8% 13.8% 19.0% 15.2%
Jakub Fuja 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 6.5% 7.6% 9.2% 8.5% 10.7% 10.0% 11.2% 10.4% 7.2% 1.9%
Andrew White 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 4.1% 4.8% 7.8% 14.3% 55.5%
Caylin Schnoor 4.2% 5.0% 5.9% 5.1% 5.7% 6.7% 8.1% 8.5% 10.7% 11.2% 12.3% 10.8% 5.8%
Nolan Cooper 3.2% 4.2% 5.1% 5.3% 8.1% 6.6% 8.4% 9.1% 10.2% 13.1% 10.8% 11.0% 5.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.