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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+2.57vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+6.42vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+3.88vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.75+0.37vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.20vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.09+0.54vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+1.45vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.09+1.62vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.02-2.29vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.26-0.44vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95+0.17vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.98vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.13+0.65vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.70-2.35vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.67vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University0.49-3.90vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Stanford University3.3023.2%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.5%1st Place
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6.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.0%1st Place
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4.37Dartmouth College2.7517.3%1st Place
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6.2Georgetown University2.208.8%1st Place
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6.54Boston College2.097.4%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.5%1st Place
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9.62University of South Florida1.093.5%1st Place
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6.71Tulane University2.027.9%1st Place
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9.56North Carolina State University1.263.0%1st Place
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11.17Old Dominion University0.951.8%1st Place
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9.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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13.65University of Vermont-0.130.8%1st Place
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11.65University of Wisconsin0.702.1%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University-0.841.6%1st Place
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12.1Roger Williams University0.491.1%1st Place
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12.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 23.2% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.3% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 30.6% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 14.5% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 11.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.