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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+3.31vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.09+4.67vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+0.55vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+4.21vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+1.94vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.09+3.53vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.95+3.92vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont-0.13+5.77vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.20-2.80vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.41vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.70+0.60vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.26-2.45vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.40vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.02-7.24vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.39vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-6.84vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University0.49-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31Dartmouth College2.7517.3%1st Place
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6.67Boston College2.097.8%1st Place
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3.55Stanford University3.3021.9%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.3%1st Place
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6.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.0%1st Place
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9.53University of South Florida1.092.9%1st Place
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10.92Old Dominion University0.952.5%1st Place
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13.77University of Vermont-0.131.1%1st Place
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6.2Georgetown University2.208.9%1st Place
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12.41Christopher Newport University-0.841.2%1st Place
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11.6University of Wisconsin0.701.7%1st Place
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9.55North Carolina State University1.263.3%1st Place
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8.6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.8%1st Place
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6.76Tulane University2.026.9%1st Place
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12.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.8%1st Place
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9.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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12.21Roger Williams University0.491.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.3% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 21.9% | 19.5% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 32.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 7.7% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.