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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+3.28vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+4.19vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+6.19vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+4.67vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.02+1.67vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.30-2.41vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09-0.26vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+4.28vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-1.89vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-1.78vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.26-1.58vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-0.93vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.09-3.52vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.70-2.52vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University0.49-2.97vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.13-2.41vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28Dartmouth College2.7517.4%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University2.208.2%1st Place
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9.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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8.67St. Mary's College of Maryland1.765.2%1st Place
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6.67Tulane University2.027.6%1st Place
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3.59Stanford University3.3021.9%1st Place
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6.74Boston College2.097.1%1st Place
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12.28Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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7.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.7%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.4%1st Place
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9.42North Carolina State University1.263.2%1st Place
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11.07Old Dominion University0.952.3%1st Place
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9.48University of South Florida1.093.6%1st Place
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11.48University of Wisconsin0.702.3%1st Place
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12.03Roger Williams University0.491.9%1st Place
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13.59University of Vermont-0.131.2%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.4% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 21.9% | 19.6% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.2% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 31.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.