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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+2.45vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+6.68vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.35vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.75+0.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+3.38vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.02+0.71vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.09+2.60vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-1.06vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+0.28vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin0.70+1.43vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.09-4.38vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.84vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.66vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.26-4.46vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University0.49-3.01vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.13-2.42vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University0.95-5.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45Stanford University3.3023.4%1st Place
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8.68St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.2%1st Place
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6.35Georgetown University2.208.9%1st Place
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4.24Dartmouth College2.7517.2%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.2%1st Place
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6.71Tulane University2.026.3%1st Place
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9.6University of South Florida1.093.5%1st Place
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6.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.8%1st Place
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9.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.5%1st Place
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11.43University of Wisconsin0.702.1%1st Place
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6.62Boston College2.097.2%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.4%1st Place
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12.34Christopher Newport University-0.841.7%1st Place
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9.54North Carolina State University1.264.2%1st Place
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11.99Roger Williams University0.490.9%1st Place
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13.58University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
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11.04Old Dominion University0.952.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 23.4% | 20.8% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.2% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Samantha Gardner | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 19.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 14.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Katherine McGagh | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.2% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 30.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.