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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+2.49vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.09+4.62vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+3.91vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.75+0.47vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+2.35vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont-0.13+6.66vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.02-1.44vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26+0.62vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.49+2.11vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95+0.07vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.84+0.41vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.98vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.36vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.70-3.54vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-7.20vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.09-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49Stanford University3.3023.1%1st Place
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6.62Boston College2.098.2%1st Place
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6.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.6%1st Place
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4.47Dartmouth College2.7516.0%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University2.2010.5%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.3%1st Place
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13.66University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
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6.56Tulane University2.028.4%1st Place
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9.62North Carolina State University1.263.5%1st Place
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12.11Roger Williams University0.491.5%1st Place
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11.07Old Dominion University0.952.2%1st Place
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12.41Christopher Newport University-0.841.4%1st Place
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9.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.8%1st Place
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12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.3%1st Place
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11.46University of Wisconsin0.702.6%1st Place
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.5%1st Place
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9.64University of South Florida1.092.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 23.1% | 19.4% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 16.0% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 28.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 15.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 17.9% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.