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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+2.62vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.02+4.58vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+1.41vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.09+2.72vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.09+4.46vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.48vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+0.14vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.95+3.14vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.70+2.74vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.26-0.60vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.73vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.20-5.88vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.27vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.13-1.42vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University0.49-4.02vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University-0.84-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62Stanford University3.3022.7%1st Place
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6.58Tulane University2.028.0%1st Place
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4.41Dartmouth College2.7516.2%1st Place
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6.72Boston College2.097.4%1st Place
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9.46University of South Florida1.094.2%1st Place
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8.48St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.4%1st Place
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7.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.0%1st Place
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11.14Old Dominion University0.951.8%1st Place
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11.74University of Wisconsin0.701.1%1st Place
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9.4North Carolina State University1.264.0%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.7%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University2.209.3%1st Place
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9.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.8%1st Place
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12.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.4%1st Place
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13.58University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
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11.98Roger Williams University0.491.9%1st Place
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12.47Christopher Newport University-0.841.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 22.7% | 19.0% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 16.2% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 19.3% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 29.1% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 11.3% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.