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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+3.31vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+4.88vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+0.69vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+2.20vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.02+1.76vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.74vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09-0.51vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+0.23vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26+0.67vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.29vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.09-1.31vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University0.49+0.21vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.95-1.95vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.24vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-5.97vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-4.65vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont-0.13-3.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31Dartmouth College2.7517.1%1st Place
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6.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.3%1st Place
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3.69Stanford University3.3021.5%1st Place
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6.2Georgetown University2.209.3%1st Place
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6.76Tulane University2.027.1%1st Place
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8.74St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.3%1st Place
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6.49Boston College2.098.2%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.7%1st Place
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9.67North Carolina State University1.263.5%1st Place
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12.29Christopher Newport University-0.841.8%1st Place
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9.69University of South Florida1.093.1%1st Place
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12.21Roger Williams University0.491.2%1st Place
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11.05Old Dominion University0.952.1%1st Place
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12.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.4%1st Place
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9.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.7%1st Place
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11.35University of Wisconsin0.702.5%1st Place
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13.67University of Vermont-0.131.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.1% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 21.5% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Laura Smith | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 15.4% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 12.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 16.8% | 30.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.